Venkatesh Rao:

Originally shared by Jordan Peacock

Venkatesh Rao:

1/ Keynes famously asked, “When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?”

2/ For many people, the answer is, “I restate what I already believe more stridently.” In other words, when the facts change, they derp.

9/ In a tribal world of timeless sacred beliefs, where new information is profane by default, to change your mind is to betray your tribe.

10/ Derping is a degenerate form of motivated reasoning, where you don’t even bother looking for confirmatory evidence. You just repeat yourself.

17/ To get out of the habit of derping, you can do two things: practice changing your mind in public and practice contingent reasoning.

20/ Contingent reasoning — working with if-then assertions that have a finite scope rather than absolute, unqualified assertions — is like insurance against changing facts.

21/ This does not mean slipping into weasel mode where you hem and haw about everything to avoid making decisions or acting.

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